Methodology

How we grade the speed of race calls.

Composite Score

Each desk receives a composite score from 0 to 100. The score is a weighted sum of per-category speed scores plus a first-call bonus that itself is weighted by race competitiveness.

S = Σ_i w_i · C_i + Σ_i b_i · F_i

where S is the composite score, C is the category speed score, F is the first-call rate, and w and b are weights

S = 0.15 · C_precall + 0.35 · C_strong + 0.50 · C_tossup

+ first-call bonus (up to 5 pts)

Category Weights

Not all races are equally important. Calling a safe seat at poll close is expected — the real test is how fast a desk moves when the outcome is genuinely uncertain.

Category	Weight	1st Call Bonus
Pre-Call Obvious races, called at poll close	15%	1.0 pt
Strong/Lean 70-90% on prediction markets	35%	2.0 pts
Toss-Up 50-70% — the hardest calls	50%	5.0 pts

Speed Scores

Each category score runs from 0 to 100, measured against absolute benchmarks — not relative to other desks.

Category	A	B	C	D
Pre-Call	<2m	<5m	<10m	<20m
Strong/Lean	<15m	<45m	<1.5h	<3h
Toss-Up	<1h	<3h	<6h	<24h

First-Call Bonus

Being first matters. The bonus rewards desks that consistently call races before competitors. Being first on a safe seat is worth far less than being first on a toss-up.

F_total = 1.0 · rate_precall + 2.0 · rate_strong + 5.0 · rate_tossup

Maximum possible bonus: 11.5 points. In practice, bonuses range from 3 to 7 points.

Grade Scale

90–100

75–89

60–74

40–59

Based on 487 tracked race calls across 200 pre-calls, 180 strong/lean, and 107 toss-up races. Competitiveness classified by prediction market odds.